When it comes to predicting the next leap in fintech, you have to risk not only getting things wrong, but also being ok with it. So while I could play it safe and predict that the top fintech trend in 2024 will be AI, or industry consolidation, or even growth in the use of buy now, pay later tools, I’m going to step into less charted territory and say that the 2024 fintech buzzword will be quantum computing.

Why quantum computing?

The concept of leveraging quantum computing in financial services is dated; it has been around since the early 2000s. However, there are three main factors why 2024 may be the year the conversation around this topic really takes off.

1. Cost savings opportunities
   Banks and other industry players are currently in a wrestling match with today’s economic environment, the expensive cost of capital, and an increase in competitors vying for customer attention. This, combined with an onslaught of new regulatory constraints that not only restrict operations but also result in new costs, has banks looking for new ways to both cut costs and add new revenue streams. Quantum computing’s promise to help firms increase speed, efficiency, and decrease risk appears to be a green field of revenue opportunity for organizations across the sector.
2. Technological demands
   The financial services industry loves generative AI, but even though it is the hottest topic in fintech at the moment, it comes with its own set of restrictions. Because it relies on enormous sets of data to work effectively, generative AI requires scalable computing power. As the use of AI evolves and data sets become increasingly larger and more complex, quantum computing may become a requirement to train AI models quickly.
3. Hardware developments
   Developments in quantum computing hardware have been slow over the past few years, making the technology inaccessible and unreasonable, even for larger financial services firms. IBM may be changing this, however. Earlier this month, the computing giant unveiled its latest computing chip, Condor, that has 1,121 superconducting qubits and can perform computations beyond the reach of traditional computers. IBM also released Heron, a chip with 133 qubits that boasts a lower error rate.
   
   Along with these hardware releases, IBM also unveiled its development roadmap for quantum computing, which pegs 2024 for the launch of its code assistant and platform.

What to expect in 2024?

Let me be clear that next year won’t be the year that financial services organizations experience widespread adoption of quantum computing. The industry has a long road ahead when it comes to leveraging the new technology and will face challenges with hardware stability, algorithm development, and security.

Despite these challenges, we will see a small handful of larger firms dabble in quantum computing in 2024. Many already are. Earlier this year, Truist Financial joined IBM’s Quantum accelerator program and MUFG purchased an 18% stake in a quantum computing startup called Groovenauts. And just today, HSBC announced it has implemented quantum protection for AI-powered foreign exchange trading, using quantum cryptography to safeguard trading data against cyber threats and quantum attacks.

These firms’ developments in quantum computing will spark conversation and development plans among mid-market firms. It is the conversation– rather than the implementation– around quantum computing that will burgeon in 2024.

Use cases in financial services

So how will firms end up using quantum computing? Specifically, the new technology will enable organizations to develop better algorithms around risk assessment, portfolio optimization, encryption, and security.

In the coming years, as quantum computing chips become more accessible, we’ll see use cases including faster transaction processing for high-frequency trading and settlement systems, customer behavior analysis and personalized financial services, and financial modeling that can more accurately predict market behavior and economic scenarios.

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Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve (Fed) rather quietly released a letter that addresses what it is calling the “creation of novel activities.” Signed by Michael S. Gibson, the Board’s Director of the Division of Supervision and Regulation, the letter is titled, Creation of Novel Activities Supervision Program.

If you’re a fintech or a bank, the contents of the letter will likely apply to you. Here are 7 highlights of the newly created program.

Who is impacted

The letter applies to all banking organizations supervised by the Fed, including those with $10 billion or less in consolidated assets. Organizations will receive a written notice from the Fed if their activities will be subject to examination. Those who are still in the exploration phase will be “routinely monitored” for active engagement.

What is it for

The program will focus on activities related to crypto-assets, distributed ledger technology (DLT), and what the Fed is calling “complex, technology-driven partnerships with nonbanks” that deliver financial services to end customers.

The target

The letter explains that the Fed will “enhance supervision” over the following categories:

• Partnerships where a non-bank provides banking products and services to end customers via APIs that provide automated access to the bank’s infrastructure.
• Activities such as crypto-asset custody, crypto-collateralized lending, facilitating crypto-asset trading, and stablecoin issuance and distribution.
• The exploration or use of DLT for issuing tokens or tokenizing securities or other assets.
• Organizations that provide traditional banking services to crypto-related companies.

How will it supervise?

The program will leverage existing supervisory processes and will use the Fed’s existing supervisory teams instead of creating a new portfolio to monitor activity. The supervision will be risk-based, meaning that the intensity of the scrutiny will vary based on each firm’s engagement in novel activities mentioned above.

Why

The Fed is seeking to strengthen its existing oversight of banks’ third party fintech partnerships. In the letter, Gibson reasons that innovation can lead to rapid change in banks and in the financial system in general, and that it has the potential to generate risks that can impact banks’ safety and soundness. “Given the novelty of these activities,” he states, “they may create unique questions around their permissibility, may not be sufficiently addressed by existing supervisory approaches, and may raise concerns for the broader financial system.”

Future plans

The Fed explained that it will continue to “build upon and enhance” its technical expertise to stay abreast of fintech trends, the risk associated with the trends, and appropriate controls to manage risk. In addition to increased supervision, the letter explains that the program will help shape supervisory approaches and create guidance for banking organizations engaging in the use of these “novel” technologies.

So what?

The Fed is making it clear that the lack of regulation for fintechs and the Wild West environment of the crypto realm is a thing of the past. This means that fintechs– especially those engaged in crypto– will need to be ready to answer not only to banks, but also to the Federal Reserve. On the flip side, banks will need to be ready to ask a lot more questions before engaging with fintechs, formalize partnership processes, and document all that they can regarding potential risk.

Questions about the letter can be sent via the Federal Reserve’s website..

Photo by Jewel Tolentino

By now you’ve likely heard that the U.S. Federal Reserve launched its FedNow instant payments solution. Using the new tool, banks and credit unions can enable their customers to instantly transfer money at any time of day, any day of the year.

The release comes 10 years after the Fed first started talking about creating a real-time payments (RTP) solution in 2013, and five years after it began developing an RTP offering. The Fed’s instant payments solution also comes after a handful of competing companies in the private sector– including Orum, Visa Direct, and The Clearing House (TCH)— had already launched.

The latter of these– TCH– just released an update that details some of the metrics it has reached in the instant payments realm after launching its RTP network in November of 2017. Here is what the company has achieved in six years:

Increased transaction number

The number of transactions on the RTP network in Q2 2023 totaled 58 million, up from 41 million transactions during that same period last year.

Increased transaction volume

The value of transactions during Q2 2023 reached $29 billion, up from $18 billion in the same quarter last year.

Gained financial institution customers

More than 350 financial institutions are providing real-time payments on the RTP network to their customers and members.

Gained business adoption

150,000 businesses are sending payments over the RTP network. This is a 50% increase since December 2022.

Reached end consumers

3+ million consumers each month are sending account-to-account payments and Zelle payments that leverage the RTP network

Reached demand deposit accounts

The RTP network currently reaches 65% of U.S. demand deposit accounts.

These milestones signify three things. First, they are a reminder to always question claims of “industry firsts.” The launch of FedNow is buzz-worthy because it is a government-led initiative, not because its the first player in the U.S. to enable real-time payments.

Second, TCH’s milestones indicate that consumers are not only conceptually ready for the change, they are open to trusting the process behind the change. “As more banks and credit unions join the RTP network, their customers and members are experiencing the benefits of real-time payments,” said TCH Senior Vice President of RTP Product Management Rusiru Gunasena. “Surpassing 500 million RTP payments signifies the accelerating growth and demand on the RTP network.”

The last thing TCH’s stats demonstrate is that there is still room for a lot of growth in this area. FedNow may not have been the first player to enter the market with an RTP solution, but that’s not to say it won’t be successful. There are currently 57 banks and credit unions planning to participate in FedNow, and Forbes estimates that number will increase to 200 by the end of the year and will reach 500 by the end of next year.

Photo by Hasan Albari

Ever since Elon Musk purchased Twitter last October for $44 million, he has been hinting of spinning the social media giant into what he is calling “X, the everything app.” In fintech, “everything apps” are known as super apps, and they exist primarily in Asia.

One of the latest developments in transitioning Twitter into a super app is Musk’s move to change Twitter’s name to X Corp. But a super app is much more than a name. Here’s a look at what the social media app currently offers, what it’s working on, and what it still needs to become a fully fledged super app.

What it has

Social
Social is most certainly Twitter’s strongest attribute. The micro-blogging platform was founded in 2006 and currently has around 450 monthly active users. While this is a considerable user base, however, it pales in comparison to well-known super app WeChat, which counts 1.3 billion monthly active users.

Investment tools
Earlier this month, Twitter partnered with eToro to not only offer real-time pricing data for stocks, but also to facilitate trades. The trades, however, do not take place within Twitter’s interface. Instead, users are routed to eToro’s website for stock details and to make trades.

What it’s (publicly) working on

Generative AI
Last week, Musk unveiled a new company called X.AI, The move confirmed rumors of his plans to launch a generative AI product after he purchased thousands of graphic processing units. X.AI is expected to compete with OpenAI, which Musk co-founded in 2015 but left in 2018 to avoid a conflict of interest.

While most super apps do not boast their own generative AI tool, adding a powerful chatbot such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT would be a major differentiating factor

Payments
Musk is publicly vociferous about his plan to add Venmo-like payments capabilities to Twitter. And it’s not just talk. Twitter filed with the Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) and is also in the process of obtaining necessary state licenses, as well.

After Twitter begins facilitating peer-to-peer payments, it may begin offering more digital bank-like tools such as a high-yield savings account or even an X-branded payment card. This leads the conversation into what Twitter still needs to become a super app.

What’s missing

Personal finance
Twitter already offers stock trading (through a third party) and it is working on offering peer-to-peer payments. There is more to personal finance, however, than just investing and spending. In order to truly become an “everything app,” Twitter must offer brick-and-mortar payments, as well as an in-app dashboard that helps users track their spending, savings, and investments.

Shopping
This may end up being one of the most challenging aspects for Twitter to add in a way that would compete with the current top super app contenders in the U.S.– Walmart and PayPal. Currently, Walmart offers consumers access to goods from an Amazon-like supplier base, as well as to goods in their local Walmart store. PayPal’s shopping experience is less compelling, but offers deals from major service providers and retailers (including Walmart).

For Twitter to start a shopping experience from scratch wouldn’t be unfathomable, but it would take a long time. If it is seeking to compete with Walmart as a super app, it will likely need to find success via a partnership.

Transportation
A few of the most well-known super apps– Grab, Gojek, and Ola– began as transportation apps. Adding transportation capabilities has the potential to draw users into the app on a daily basis because they not only facilitate commutes via ride-hailing or public transportation payments, they also facilitate hyper-local delivery, grocery delivery, and restaurant delivery. These aspects play major roles in the lives of consumers.

Health services
Amazon, Walmart, and others have tackled the fragmented healthcare industry. Providing affordable health services, such as appointment booking, tele-health calls, records management, and ask-a-nurse services in a single place provides a lot of value for end users.

Health services will not be a primary driver bringing users into Twitter’s super app, but it will certainly help to keep them around and may even help target the app’s older users.

Insurance
Similar to adding health services, insurance tools will not serve as a primary draw for users. However, offering tools such as a digital lock box with insurance cards, contact information, coverage options, and payment history is a valuable add-on and can help reach older users not necessarily seeking social or payment capabilities.

Government and public services
To become a well-rounded super app, Twitter should add government and public services, such as public transportation payment and tracking, library cards, and tax preparation services. In the U.S. however, with the advent of FedNow and the potential addition of a CBDC, the government may end up beating Twitter to the punch with a super app of its own.

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